Understand net-worth projections

Read realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios built from your trailing monthly pace.

Written by the Hugo team
Updated July 29, 2026 · 1 min read

Projections require a financial goal with a target amount and at least three months of net-worth history.

Realistic scenario

Hugo calculates the average monthly pace over the trailing 12 months, or all available history when shorter. It extends that pace linearly from the latest checkpoint.

Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios

Hugo measures the typical monthly swing using a robust median-based method so one unusual revaluation does not dominate the range.

  • Optimistic adds the typical swing to the realistic monthly pace.
  • Pessimistic subtracts it. When realistic pace is positive, the pessimistic growth pace is not allowed to flip below zero solely because of the variability band.

Choose a horizon of 1, 5, 10, or 20 years. Longer horizons are less reliable.

Important limitation

These lines extrapolate your historical pace. They are not probability ranges, guaranteed returns, or financial advice. Future contributions, expenses, markets, exchange rates, taxes, and life changes can produce very different results.

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